The next 50 years

My economic theory — to be published on this blog-site soon — has some strong implications about the next 50 years or so. The main one is that the total manufacturing output of the world wll be roughly the same as it is now/ It may slide a little due to the automatic gain in energy efficiency — the Law of Least Effort — or it may gain somewhat as China finally sells consumer goods to the remaining middle-class markets dotted around the world.

What about some individual countries? China will continue to develop until its economy stabilises at an average middle-class standard of living. America and this country will continue to grow modestly as they both feel their way into the sophisticated services of the new post-industrial era. Germany will continue to do well until China starts building its own more advanced engineering goods which it presently imports from Germany.

What about the rest? This is mainly about 180 undeveloped countries. These will be joined by about a dozen that aspire to be developed but will fail and about a dozen more that we already consider to be advanced but will also subsequently fail because they don’t create the necessary new ideas for the new era.

The standard of living of the people of all the above countries will gradually increase only if they learn to reduce their birth-rates steeply. Some of them could do very well indeed if they are also able to develop specialised ecological tourist sites for holiday makers in the advanced countries.

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