The inevitable euro-crash

The EU faces three imminent problems. One is the lack of an immigration policy that’s agreed by all members. Another is how it will adjust to the departure of one of its Big Three economies — Britain — from its ranks.

The third one — of longer standing and by far the most intractable — is the euro. In particular it is too expensive for Greece to be able to export anything other than a few premium products to the rest of the world, and thereby reduce its national debt.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) — exceeding its legal powers three years ago — helped to bail out Greece when its debt was around 140% of GDP. It is now 170% and continuing to rise. At present, the IMF have refused another bailout. Germany, the only really prosperous country in the eurozone — apart from the Netherlands — and the only one capable of giving a adequate loan also refuses to do so.

All this comes up in the next few weeks. Maybe — in some unimaginable way — the can will be kicked down the road again for another year or two. But it’s only a matter of time before the inevitable euro-crash occurs — very possibly tripping off the much greater anomaly of the enormous concurrent imbalances of the US dollar around the world.

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