What many of those who write about or even think about migration are in denial about is the scale, not just the reality, of the African population. Unless there is vast starvation there in the coming decades, or it suffers a major epidemic, then, at present fertility rates, the present population of 1 billion will expand to at least 2 to 3 billion in the coming 30 years.
In short, as many Africans — usually young men on behalf of their families — who can afford the fees demanded by those businessmen whom politicians pejoratively call ‘human traffickers’ will arrive in Libya, or some other launch point, get into a dinghy for Italy.
How many will try to make the crossing — and how many will die by drowning — is anybody’s guess. Mine is up to a million a year. This is greatly exceeded by the natural birth rate in Africa, so the immigration could be vastly greater than what has already happened due to Angela Merkel’s virtual ‘open door’ statement of last year.
In order to prevent even more extreme right-wing parties forming in the EU countries then the Brussels bureaucrats will have to come up with an effective policy. They actually want to increase immigration but they will have to draw a line very soon if they hope to keep the EU in anything like its present shape and composition.