If I seemed too complacent in my posting yesterday, “Corruption over the longer term” — that it would be driven to low levels — then Steve Kurtz takes me to task. In his Comment he writes that I’m assuming that “economies don’t undergo chaotic breakdowns where barter, theft, black markets, etc would proliferate.”
I’m not assuming that. It’ll be the least of it in many countries — in most countries actually. I think we’ll see starvation on a massive scale as the new Chinese middle class demand the same level of high class protein that advanced countries already have. Such protein will need grain feedstock that will deprive at least three or four billion people of sufficient carbohydrate food in the next 30 years.
I think we’ll see genocide and savagery on an even wider scale than we already do. This Spring already sees the EU shaping up to massive brutality in keeping millions of Africans out of Europe as politicians try to pacify their own electorates. With Africa’s population destined to grow from one billion to at least three billion in the next 30 years pretty well a total blockade will have to be maintained by Europe for that period — especially as human jobs continue to be automated.
It is only the wildest and most irrational economic growthist who can deny that the world population — tragically through no fault of its own but only of well-meant medical care — has grown far too large for any sort of peaceful adjustment.