Is the latest terrorist attack — a series of explosions in Jakarta, Indonesia — a sign that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi going mad? There’s been no indication yet that this has been an Isis project but it’s highly likely to have been. Al-Baghdadi didn’t become the leader of Isis because he’d written a PhD on the battles of Sunniism as it expanded out of Arabia in the 7th century. He was himself a very successful leader of small terrorist groups within Al Qaeda before breaking away.
His forte was, apparently, surprise — the ability to carry out an unexpected attack in entirely unorthodox ways. And to carry them out with great speed. His original attack on Mosul, a sizeable city, with only 300 jihadists was an example. He was able to repeat the same tactics time and again. But most of his gains in Syria have now been bombed out. Al-Baghdadi himself got out and is now in Libya. He’s now repeating his unexpected scatter shots.
But unlike Taliban in Afghanistan he hasn’t established real territory to rule over — something every authentic Caliph should have. By and large, al-Baghdadi has failed. He’s losing his judgement. “Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first makes mad.”